According to the latest insights from BloombergNEF, the global solar market is entering a new pricing phase — one defined not by dramatic module price declines, but by structural shifts in cost composition.

Module Prices: From Volatility to Stability

After years of price disruption, solar module pricing is finally stabilizing:

Module prices remained flat in 2025 (~$0.09/W)

A slight uptick is observed in 2026

Manufacturing cost currently estimated at ~$0.093/W, including silver

More importantly, the PV experience curve is back on track:

Learning rate: 30.3%

Each doubling of cumulative production reduces cost by ~30%

Costs expected to fall below $0.05/W around 2035 (at ~10TW cumulative capacity)

👉 This confirms a key industry reality: Long-term cost reduction remains intact — but no longer linear or immediate.

The Real Shift: Non-Module Costs Now Dominate

While module prices have historically been the focal point, that is no longer the case.

Today, the majority of solar project capex lies in:

Engineering & EPC services

Mounting structures & racking

Inverters, transformers, cables

Land acquisition & grid connection

BNEF highlights a benchmark of ~$0.15/W just for land and grid-related costs — often highly variable across markets.

👉 In other words: Even if modules get cheaper, total project costs may not.

Utility-Scale Capex: A Structural Floor Emerging

Due to the slight rebound in module pricing and persistent soft costs:

2026 utility-scale capex forecasts have been revised upward

Long-term expectations are also adjusted, reflecting: Grid bottlenecks Land constraints Permitting complexity

This suggests the industry is approaching a “cost floor” scenario, where further reductions become structurally harder.

Residential Segment: Stability with Limited Upside

Residential system prices remained largely stable throughout 2025, with only minor fluctuations across major markets.

This indicates:

A mature pricing environment

Limited short-term room for cost compression

Increasing importance of policy support and installation efficiency

Qn-SOLAR Perspective: Competing Beyond Price

At Qn-SOLAR, we see a clear transition:

From “price-driven competition” → “system value competition”

Future competitiveness will depend on:

High-efficiency modules (more watts per square meter)

System integration capabilities

Grid-compliant, future-proof solutions

Bankability and long-term performance reliability

As module pricing stabilizes, the industry’s focus shifts to:

👉 Reducing LCOE through smarter system design — not just cheaper components

Final Thought

The era of rapid module price decline may be slowing — but solar’s long-term cost trajectory remains firmly downward.

The real challenge ahead is no longer just how cheap modules can get, but:

How efficiently we can deploy them at scale.