In a recent report, Wood Mackenzie projected that global solar and storage equipment costs may rise by around 9% in Q4 2025, marking a potential turning point for the PV industry after 18 months of record-low prices.

The report attributes this possible cost rebound to changes in China’s export and tax rebate policies — a structural shift that could signal the end of the era of ultra-low equipment prices.

⚙️ Policy Context: A Shift in China’s Export Dynamics

According to public information from China’s Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration, the export tax rebate rate for photovoltaic products and batteries was reduced from 13% to 9% in December 2024.

Building on this, Wood Mackenzie further predicts that the remaining export rebates or VAT refunds may be canceled entirely from Q4 2025, as part of China’s broader effort to:

Curb overcapacity

Improve industrial efficiency

Stabilize export margins

Although this prediction has not yet been officially confirmed, it aligns with China’s current policy direction of optimizing industrial structure and promoting sustainable competition.

If implemented, such policy changes could push module and energy storage costs up by 5–10%, setting a new baseline for global equipment pricing.

🏛️ Qn-SOLAR will continue to monitor announcements from China’s Ministry of Finance, State Taxation Administration, and Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and provide timely updates once official policies are released.

💡 Key Factors Behind the Price Fluctuations

1️⃣ Upstream Capacity Regulation

The Chinese government is tightening regulation over polysilicon and wafer production to address overcapacity and price distortions.

By promoting a healthier market balance, this move aims to guide the industry toward sustainable, high-quality growth.

2️⃣ Rising Manufacturing Costs

Increases in energy, labor, and compliance expenses are putting additional pressure on manufacturers.

These cost adjustments naturally influence overall pricing structures and contribute to the recent market rebound expectations.

🌍 What Does This Mean for The Global PV Market

The past 18 months have seen unprecedented price declines across the solar supply chain, driven by rapid capacity expansion and fierce competition.

While this created short-term benefits for project developers, it also led to margin compression and reduced reinvestment in next-generation technologies.

If equipment prices begin to recover, the market may enter a more balanced phase — one where technology, efficiency, and long-term reliability regain importance over pure cost competition.

⚡ Qn-SOLAR’s Approach: Efficiency, Value, and Reliability

At Qn-SOLAR, we believe that true competitiveness lies not only in price, but in performance stability, delivery reliability, and continuous innovation.

Our PV modules are engineered for:

✅ Superior Power Output – High efficiency to maximize energy yield

✅ Outstanding Low-Light Performance – Reliable output even under cloudy conditions

✅ Durability and Long-Term Reliability – Built for extended lifecycle stability

✅ Rectangular Wafer Design – Optimized for system layout, BOS savings, and LCOE reduction

As market conditions evolve, Qn-SOLAR will remain focused on technology-driven product solutions that balance efficiency, cost, and sustainability — ensuring lasting value for our global partners.

📈 Looking Ahead

The potential end of the low-price era could redefine global PV competition.

Rather than a setback, it presents an opportunity for the industry to upgrade — emphasizing quality, innovation, and resilience over short-term price wars.

Qn-SOLAR will continue to drive this transformation with efficient, reliable, and future-ready solar solutions.

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